Divisive B.C. election poured cold water on the NDP's majority
Province split by Conservatives' call for change, warnings from NDP — and now Greens may hold the balance
This campaign to determine the next B.C. government, which was defined by name-calling and fear-mongering, resulted in a split vote over how to deal with the province's most pressing issues.
It's the product of asking voters to decide between dissatisfaction with an incumbent party currently running a $9 billion deficit as costs of living continue to mount; or sticking with them because of uncertainty or unease over the alternative — a party that hasn't elected an MLA since 1978.
In the end, despite both the B.C. NDP and B.C. Conservative Party calling each other names and spreading fear about one another, their tactics weren't enough to decisively sway voters — meaning the make-up for the legislature later this fall is still uncertain.
With recounts certainly to come in several ridings, the count as of early Sunday had the B.C. NDP winning or elected in 46 ridings, the B.C. Conservative Party winning or elected in 45 riding and the B.C. Green Party elected in two ridings.
If those numbers hold, the results will bring the province back to the political situation of 2017, when the NDP and Greens signed an agreement to lead the legislature with the previously ruling B.C. Liberals as Official Opposition.
This time around, though, it's unclear how any kind of power sharing — and between which parties — would work.
Eby did say on election night that he had already reached out to the Greens, however.
There was little common ground between the two main parties this campaign because both of them thought they could deliver knock-out blows to the other.
"We have a very deeply wounded and divided province," said Kareem Allam, who was Kevin Falcon's leadership campaign manager with the B.C. United party but cast his lot with the NDP after B.C. United suspended its campaign amid a Conservative surge.
"Long gone are the days of coalition building."
But why collaborate when you're the ruling party and have trouble seeing your adversary as a credible threat? Why collaborate when you're an upstart party with nothing to lose?
At the head of the Conservatives, John Rustad came out of a political wilderness to potentially win 45 seats.
"It's important to keep fighting," said Rustad in a speech on election night despite no official call for results. He vowed to bring down a minority government that didn't involve his party at the first chance.
Despite a poor performance during the campaign's only televised debate, a party platform released four days before election day and controversy over candidates, Rustad and his message to voters clearly resonated.
He asked if they were any better off now after seven years of NDP rule. He floated populist policies like a renters' and homeowners' rebate, getting tough on crime, and even a return to plastic straws.
It was enough to win seats from the NDP in ridings in Surrey, Richmond and the Fraser Valley, where the economy, public safety, and even how sexuality is taught in schools were central issues during the campaign, and something the Conservatives went after the NDP on.
The NDP chose to go after controversial candidates, going even so far to call on Rustad to drop seven of them because their views "have no place in a political party seeking to lead British Columbia."
The tactic backfired. Some of them were either elected or were poised to be, suggesting voters may have been less concerned about the candidates and more concerned about giving the NDP another mandate.
"This has been a very, very hard fought campaign and we knew that every vote would matter," said Eby from a speech on election night as the results remained stalled.
His party did preliminarily collect its greatest share of popular vote with 44.5 per cent, which he said was an endorsement of the NDP's "progressive values."
And Eby conceded that Rustad was successful in connecting with voters over key issues in the election, such as affordability, health care and social disorder.
"We have to do better. We will do better," he conceded, while promising to be the premier that would bring B.C. together.
However, he's now faced with the reality that his party has potentially been reduced to 46 of 93 seats in the upcoming 43rd parliament, down from 55 of 87 seats.
The provincial electoral map with the tentative results shows the north, east and centre of the province nearly all blue, with the coast nearly all orange.
If current results hold, forming government for either the NDP or Conservatives will come down to who can best court the B.C. Green Party and the two seats it won, despite leader Sonia Furstenau being defeated in the riding she contested.
Errant votes
There may also be some gnashing of teeth by both the NDP and the Conservatives over votes that either party could have found a different way to grasp during the campaign.
Nearly 71,000 votes went to Independent or non-affiliated candidates.
Power outages and flooding due to an atmospheric river sweeping across southern B.C. on Saturday also likely kept some voters from casting ballots.
"It certainly has me thinking about turnout," said Shachi Kurl, a public policy analyst with the Angus Reid Institute.
No matter. The campaign that shaped who will form government matched the weather on voting day: dark and ominous.
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