Rise of B.C. Conservatives puts B.C. United on shaky ground — to the NDP's advantage, experts say
Previous polls suggest support for B.C. Conservatives, B.C. United split nearly down the middle
The Conservative Party of B.C. has made a "splash" in its return to the Legislature, said political scientist Gerald Baier — but whether that will be followed by strong numbers come election time remains to be seen.
One thing political watchers seem to agree on is that the rise of the B.C. Conservatives puts current Opposition party B.C. United, formerly the B.C. Liberal Party, on shaky ground.
Previous polls, including one by Angus Reid, suggest support for the two parties is split nearly down the middle.
Hamish Telford, associate professor of political science with the University of the Fraser Valley, said the Conservative Party of B.C. is currently playing a "spoiler role" in B.C.'s political arena, drawing votes from a major party with similar policies.
The fall 2023 session of the B.C. Legislature, which wrapped up Thursday, saw the first appearance since the early 1970s of two Conservatives in the Legislature.
Leader John Rustad, MLA for Bulkley-Nechako Lakes, joined the B.C. Conservatives in February after being booted from B.C. United last year for boosting a tweet that cast doubt on climate science. The Conservatives gained official party status after former B.C. United MLA Bruce Banman crossed the floor to join Rustad in September.
The rise of the B.C. Conservative Party coincides with strong polling numbers for Pierre Poilievre's federal Conservatives.
The B.C. Conservatives have come out swinging on a number of issues, speaking out against sexual orientation and gender identity (SOGI) resources in schools and mandatory vaccinations for health-care workers, and claiming that climate change does not pose a major threat to people in B.C.
If elected in the next provincial election expected for October 2024, the Conservatives would eliminate the carbon tax, roll back climate-friendly building codes and consider nuclear power as an energy option, Rustad said.
He said his goal is to form government next year and the party plans to run 93 candidates across B.C.
"We're going to be competing everywhere we can in this province, to try to earn the respect and the votes from the people of this province with the vision that we are going to be laying out," Rustad said.
He said he believes people are ready for a change from what the B.C. NDP government and Opposition B.C. United have to offer.
Social conservative playbook
Baier, an associate professor at the University of British Columbia, said the duo is drawing from the social conservative playbook with stances that have proven popular in provinces such as Saskatchewan and New Brunswick. Whether that's enough to win seats in B.C., he said, is another question.
"There's an audience for some of that, and they haven't heard it from most parties, because most parties in B.C. try to avoid those kinds of issues as much as they can," Baier said.
That socially conservative territory is something Baier said B.C. United has traditionally avoided to attract support from those left and right of centre.
The B.C. NDP has criticized the B.C. Conservatives for increasing social polarization. Attorney General Nikki Sharma said Rustad is "stoking, fear, hatred and division," with his rhetoric around SOGI 123, in reference to a tractor crash on Highway 1 in Surrey that police say was linked to an anti-SOGI convoy.
Rustad disagreed, saying the blame lies with the current government and the media.
"We're coming forward with very straightforward playing positions, very defendable positions in terms of what we want to see for people and for families across this province," Rustad said.
'Trying to save the furniture in a house fire'
Politicians and political watchers have also said B.C. United Leader Kevin Falcon's promises to cancel carbon tax hikes and eliminate the carbon tax on home heating fuels are an attempt to appeal to more conservative voters following the rise of the B.C. Conservatives.
Falcon was part of the B.C. Liberal government that brought in the carbon tax in 2008, and has sustained repeated attacks from the NDP for "flip-flopping" on the tax.
George Heyman, NDP MLA and minister of environment and climate change strategy, called Falcon's vow to repeal the carbon tax a "desperate attempt to rip up B.C.'s climate plan to attract voters back from the B.C. Conservatives."
Falcon has maintained the carbon tax under the NDP has not reduced emissions. He said he doesn't support the NDP's version of it as it is no longer as revenue-neutral as it was under the former B.C. Liberal Party.
Telford echoed Heyman's critique, and said Falcon is "backpedaling rapidly" on the carbon tax in an attempt to stop losing votes to the B.C. Conservatives.
It represents a shift, he said, from Falcon's previous attempts to win back more liberal members of their base.
"I think he may be abandoning that project now, sort of trying to save the furniture in a house fire, and that is to at least hold on to the conservative base that they have in the Interior," Telford said.
Falcon said he's not concerned about B.C.'s Conservative Party and that they are riding on a tide of popularity generated by the federal Conservatives.
"I believe [voters] will go for the party that's got the track record and got the confidence and the quality candidates and a platform that's going to be able to get the economy back on track and fix the challenges we're facing," Falcon said.
Vote splitting raises prospect of 'easy' NDP victory
Telford said the B.C. Conservatives have zeroed in on grievances seen across the province, particularly in the Interior and the north, but has yet to offer an alternative course of governance.
"If they don't gain more traction and become the dominant centre-right party or right party, they could end up just splitting the vote down the middle with B.C. United, handing an easy victory to the NDP," said Telford of the Conservatives.
Rustad said he is not concerned about a vote split between the B.C. Conservatives and B.C. United, and that his party has drawn support from all sides of the political spectrum.
"We're going to be presenting a clear alternative that I think the people in British Columbia are looking for," Rustad said.
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With files from The Canadian Press