In 5-way Surrey mayoral race, organization will matter more than ideology

Nobody in Surrey got the memo from David Eby that only one person is allowed to run for leadership. 

Former White Rock Mayor Gordie Hogg announced Wednesday that he'd like to be leader of a second city, putting his hat into the increasingly crowded ring to become mayor of Surrey in this October's elections. 

"When it comes to the election in October, the question for Surrey voters is clear: have you had enough yet, and do you believe we can do better, together?" said Hogg.

Hogg (a former Liberal MLA and MP) joins Brenda Locke (a former Liberal MLA), Sukh Dhaliwal (a Liberal MP) and Jinny Sims (an NDP MLA) in hoping to usurp incumbent Doug McCallum, who wants to be re-elected. 

The five candidates have differences when it comes to ideology and promises: Sims is the only person running on the traditional left of the political spectrum, Locke is the only one explicitly promising to return to the RCMP for policing, Hogg is the only one promising that "voters have  the final say" on the matter, Dhaliwal the only one promising to roll back a $200/year increase to the city's parcel tax.  

But in this race, political ideology and specific promises may not matter as much.

Ground game matters

Former Surrey councillor Barinder Rasode, who ran for mayor in 2014 and finished third, believes traditional political ideologies matter less to Surrey voters. 

"Partisan political support at either the federal or provincial level doesn't translate into the municipality," she said.

"All of the traditional targets, whether it be voter turnout from neighbourhoods like South Surrey and Cloverdale, to involvement in Newton, this is all being put into the mix in a very unusual way."

Rasode said that while McCallum has amassed plenty of controversy, his ability to follow through on his two promises around policing and transit means he could still retain much of the 41 per cent of votes he got in 2018. 

However, she pointed out there is room for other candidates to chip away at his voter base with residents questioning taxes introduced by his council, and his openness.

"I think transparency and ethics at City Hall is definitely an issue that keeps making the headlines in Surrey," said Rasode.

With four candidates fighting over the anti-McCallum vote, each with slightly overlapping ideologies or platforms, the ability for one candidate to stand out could prove difficult. 

Which is why turnout and organization will be key. 

"Whoever has the best ground game will likely emerge victorious in October," said University of the Fraser Valley political scientist Hamish Telford. 

"This will come down to the slates that the candidates put together. Do they have attractive-looking slates with reputable people that appeal to the different parts of the city and help push the mayoralty candidate over the top?"

Scramble for supporters 

It has created a scramble across Surrey to create the broadest team possible: in organizers, in candidates, in supporters. 

Consider Dhaliwal's announcement earlier this week: one of his council candidates, Jasbir Sandhu, was an NDP MP. One of his key organizers is Brad Zubyk, a longtime B.C. Liberal operative. His opening event had large amounts of the city's South Asian media present.  

At the same time, Sims had an opening event with hundreds of people in attendance. Locke's team has been campaigning for over a year. And Hogg brings with him a sitting councillor and plenty of connections from his 30 years in local, provincial and federal politics. 

In other words, everyone still has a path forward. 

"Vote splitting, that's what happens in democracies. And that's part of the strength of democracy. And we should honour that. We shouldn't be complaining about it," said Hogg.

Perhaps not. But it could be something everyone other than Doug McCallum complains about in the months to come.