Calgary's Green Line: Shorter and more expensive, once again

The latest iteration of Calgary's Green Line LRT project might be considerably shorter — and more expensive — than the original vision, but Mayor Jyoti Gondek says she is still confident there will be more to the plan than what was announced this week.

On Tuesday, council voted to cut six stations from Phase 1 of the Green Line megaproject while increasing its budget to over $6.2 billion.

The proposed new line will run from Eau Claire to Lynnwood/Millican instead of Eau Claire to Shepard, making it much shorter than anticipated.

But Gondek says getting this expensive first section completed is key to the ultimate buildout.

"The Blue Line got built in phases, the Red Line got built in phases, the Green Line will not be any different. We have now kicked off the initial phase and we continue to pursue funding that we know we could have access to," she said.

That money would come from the federal public transit fund, and Gondek says she is working with the province to put an application together.

"I remain very optimistic that we will continue to find funds to build the whole line."

Gondek's optimism was echoed by Coun. Gian-Carlo Carra, who told CBC News that, while the new plan approved this week is "flirting with just below minimum viable size," it won't stay the same size for long.

"It will work and we will also get more money over the next six years. It will not remain this size for long, if at all," said the Ward 9 councillor.

Tuesday's council decision was not the first time the Green Line project has seen its costs go up and its reach diminished. 

The original idea grew out of plans for a dedicated busway to the southeast part of the city. As new LRT lines were being debated, instead of pitting the southeast against the north, then-mayor Naheed Nenshi proposed a single LRT — the Green Line — which would run from the north-central end of town to the southeast.  

The question was how to pay for it?  

In 2015, on the eve of a federal election, the Stephen Harper government —  facing criticism for doing so little for Calgary —  became very interested in Calgary and the Green Line.  

Suddenly there was Alberta's chief cabinet minister, Jason Kenney, doing a news conference with Nenshi about the Green Line with a $1.5-billion cheque in his pocket. 

The early maps of the Green Line showed it stretching from 160th Avenue N. to Seton in the south. This was often misinterpreted as showing what the money would be used to complete, even though city officials — and the former mayor — stated repeatedly this was just a sketch and that no design work had been done.  

What could be built for the $4.5 billion assembled from the city, the province and the feds? No one knew, so studies began. Meanwhile, the city started buying land.

Ultimately a route was defined for the first stage of the project. It was decided to tunnel underground through the downtown to placate angry office tower owners who didn't want another at-grade or elevated train. By 2019, $4.5 billion had become $4.9 billion.  

As the work progressed, it was realized the city would face $600 million in borrowing costs to pay banks for the money it needed to complete the Green Line, bringing the budget to a cool $5.5 billion. 

More budget pressures and questions emerged. Could they afford to get the train across the Bow River to Crescent Heights and north to 16th Avenue? No one said no, but council voted to build the first phase between Eau Claire and Shepard in the southeast. If there was cash left over, then the train would cross the Bow. If not, it would have to wait for another day when more cash was found. 

Then the province halted everything for almost two years. Complaining about the "train line to nowhere," then transportation minister Ric McIver asked the city to show its work. The city did show the work and ultimately McIver approved continuing the provincial funding of the Green Line without making a single change.  

Since then, the city has been taking bids from companies to build the project — ultimately choosing Bow Transit Connectors in 2023. It then entered the design phase, which was slated for 16 months and has now wrapped up.  

That brings us to this week and the announcement that the budget for the Green Line as it was envisioned is actually $7.2 billion. Since no one has that much money, the line was cut from 18 to 10 kilometres. Stations have been cut and one underground station has been brought to the surface to satisfy current Transportation Minister Devin Dreeshen's vision of a fully integrated Green Line/provincial rail system.  

The changes reduced the new project budget to $6.2 billion, which meant the city needed to rustle up an extra $700 million. It did that through a variety of sources — including over $200 million in surplus cash from last year's budget and an increased dividend from the city-owned Enmax utility.  

Construction is scheduled to begin this fall.

While the mayor and some councillors speak positively about the future of the Green Line and its potential expansion, the change in the scope of the project announced this week could theoretically place some of the existing provincial and federal funding in jeopardy. 

The federal minister of Housing, Infrastructure and Communities, Sean Fraser, sent a letter to city council this week saying the changes announced require a further review of the project details, to ensure they still meet the requirements of the Canada Infrastructure Program.

"To make this determination, a new business case will need to be submitted and assessed by our Treasury Board," Fraser wrote.

Alberta Finance Minister Nate Horner said much the same thing at a news briefing on Wednesday, when he was asked about the changes to the Green Line plans.

While the changes were too fresh to have shown up on his desk yet, Horner responded.

"I believe even the federal government's been clear that if there's a scope change, it would need to be reapplied and reassessed," he said.

The optimism about the project's future sounded by the current mayor on Wednesday isn't necessarily being felt by her predecessor Nenshi, who just happens to be the new leader of the provincial NDP.

Nenshi wasn't available for comment, but in an interview with Calgary Herald columnist Don Braid this week, he cited a recent trend by some members of the UCP government to refer to the Green Line as "Nenshi's nightmare," and said he wouldn't be surprised if the province killed the deal, just because of his connection to it.

"There is a very real likelihood they will kill the project just to try to score political points on me," Nenshi said.