No sign of Flames arena talks reigniting, so what's next?

The phone still isn't ringing.

Mayor Naheed Nenshi says the city remains at the negotiating table, willing to talk anytime the Calgary Sports and Entertainment Corporation (CSEC) wants to chat about a new arena.

But after bitter and vitriolic comments during the municipal election campaign, the Flames' ownership group is quiet.

After all, CSEC CEO Ken King said the organization is no longer pursuing a new arena and the Flames are going to focus on hockey.

The Flames' owners feel the city's offer is far short of what they need, and the city isn't prepared to empty the vaults or raise taxes to give the Flames everything they want.

The ominous words of NHL commissioner Gary Bettman that "there would be consequences" if the Flames didn't get a new arena serve as a not-so-gentle reminder that the issue can't just sit on the back burner forever.

Then there's that possible 2026 winter Olympic bid.

The Calgary Bid Exploration Committee's final report suggested a new arena — in addition to the Saddledome — is a requirement if the city wants to position itself for a competitive bid.

No talks. So where's this going?

If the city is ready to talk at any time but the Flames are not interested and there's no sign the team is planning to build its own arena, where is this going?

There's no word on the Flames' owners selling the team.

Even if Nenshi and King weren't personally at the table, the city or the Flames could seek out a mediator who could shuttle between the two parties.

A well-placed city source says it's unlikely the Flames will call the city for a year after this fall's bitter election.

In the background, there's another mega-development still moving forward — literally around the proposed new arena site.

The Stampede wants to redevelop its land in Victoria Park and the city wants to create a new entertainment district.

The city's preferred site for a new arena happens to sit right in the middle of that land.

The Calgary Municipal Land Corporation (CMLC) has been charged by both the city and the Stampede with developing the vision for this space.

The final version of what's called the "Victoria Park master plan" will be revealed in January.

Just assume an arena will be included

So how exactly do you come up with a vision for the new city council-sanctioned entertainment district if you don't know whether there's a shiny new arena occupying a key space in that area?

The head of CMLC, Michael Brown, said for now, let's just assume it's going to happen.

"It's not a piece where I'm sitting in my office today and saying we need to figure this out right now," said Brown.

"To be honest, I feel like I have a good five to six years that we can continue to work around it." 

The master plan is designed to be a 10 to 20-year vision that will guide the redevelopment of Victoria Park.

Brown said it will incorporate both council's direction for an entertainment district and the Stampede's desire to expand the BMO Centre and generate new revenues.

But what happens if a key piece of that entertainment district — a new arena — isn't going to be built on that space in Victoria Park?

Brown said there's time to see if the "great arena debate" can sort itself out.

"If in five to ten years from now, we haven't figured that out and the rest of the community is built up around it, you're going to see the development community start raising their hand and saying 'Hey, I want to use that. I want to access that piece of land.'"

Lessons from Seattle

After a brief media panic that a deal in Seattle by the Oak View Group to renovate that city's Key Arena for $600 million US ($770m Cdn) was a sure sign the Flames are packing up and heading west, cooler heads have prevailed.

Seattle wants to lure both an NHL and NBA team to a renovated 1962 arena that's owned by the city. 

The NHL has already set the bar at $650 million US for an expansion team.

Consider that the minimum selling price the Flames' owners would entertain if Oak View Group wanted to buy an existing franchise with proven players like Sean Monahan and Johnny Gaudreau.

The privately funded Seattle arena deal intrigues Nenshi.

"It certainly shows that there is a larger universe of options in getting this kind of infrastructure built, perhaps than we've been exposed to," said Nenshi.

"As always, I'm willing to negotiate with anybody and listen to any and all interesting ideas."

Seattle's prospective ownership group wants to make a go of it with a 17,100-seat arena for hockey that would have 8,650 high-priced seats in the lower bowl.

Those numbers are both smaller than the Saddledome and less than the 9,000 lower bowl seats the Flames' Brian Burke has suggested the team must have to stay in the black.

Not much has been heard from Bettman about the lack of money or commitment shown by Seattle's city council.

Calgary's city council has already offered more than that.

Show me the money

The bottom line to any end of the Calgary stand-off from the Flames' perspective is: there must be more money in any arena deal/franchise sale/team move for them than what they get today.

If the team's owners refuse to resume negotiating with the city, then they are either:

• Fine with current revenues (King has said in the past they're not). 
• Preparing to cash out by selling the team (they say the team isn't for sale).
• Planning to build their own arena with no city help (no sign of that and it would cost them more money than working with the city).
• Planning to convince the NHL to let them move the franchise to a better market than Calgary.

But considering the team is the 11th highest money earning team in the league and it's sitting eighth best in terms of attendance, you do have to wonder where they might move to find a greener, more lucrative pasture.

As Nenshi said recently: "If I'm the National Hockey League, I'm not sure that I'm leaving one of my top ten markets to go to a place that is unproven and give up expansion fees."

The list of markets that do not already have an NHL team and have an available building that could just be handed to the Flames' owners is currently mighty short.

Unless they're okay with making less money than they can in Calgary.