Risk of recession high but Alberta could avoid worst impacts, says Mark Carney

The United States is facing an "uncomfortably high" risk of falling into a recession, says Mark Carney, former governor of the Bank of Canada, but Alberta could be insulated from the worst impacts if that happens.

Carney made the remarks during the Alberta Relaunch event held at the BMO Centre on Tuesday, a conference billed as being focused on shaping Alberta's economic future. Around 300 were in attendance.

Carney, who is now vice-chair of Brookfield Asset Management, characterized the risk that the U.S. would fall into recession as "uncomfortably high," but predicted it would not reach the severity of the 2008 financial crisis.

"It's not 2008 [because there's not] a bunch of big imbalances in the system," Carney said as part of a keynote address.

Carney also said Alberta and Canada could be part of a solution to badly shaken global energy markets.

In the Alberta government's latest fiscal update Tuesday, skyrocketing oil and gas prices led the way to a $3.9-billion surplus, a figure that will lead to much debate over what to do with such a large cash influx. 

Challenges and opportunity in the energy industry was one of the dominant topics at the one-day conference, and specifically when it came to decarbonization.

Lisa Raitt, a former Conservative cabinet minister who is now vice-chair of global investment banking at CIBC, said affordability remains the "Achilles heel" when it comes to decarbonization.

"There's a lot of understanding of the 'why' we're doing it — we're sold on why we need to do net-zero, we're sold on why we need to do decarbonization … but the question that remains is, how?" said Raitt, one of the keynote speakers.

"The how comes from industry, but the how also comes from politicians and from politics."

Raitt said conservatives needed to stop fighting about carbon pricing, calling it a "shiny object" — comments that drew some applause in the room. She did, however, say she would be in favour of a pause on tax for fuel to help consumers.

In a separate keynote address, Lisa Baiton, who took over in April as president and CEO of the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP), said she hoped to "relaunch" the conversation around the oil and gas industry.

Baiton, who was previously a member of the global leadership team at the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board, took the helm at CAPP as Russia's invasion of Ukraine led to ongoing debates around energy security.

"Our industry is transforming for a new era," Baiton said as part of her first public remarks in the new role, adding the lobby group's objective is to position Canada as a global provider of responsible power while lowering greenhouse gas emissions.

In an interview after her speech, Baiton said CAPP was focused on bringing forward ideas and solutions to today's energy challenges.

"We're going to do a better job of telling the story about all the really terrific innovation that's happening in the sector that has already made demonstrable difference in the reduction of GHG emissions," she said. 

Concerns around issues related to the energy sector are top of mind for many Albertans. A new poll released Tuesday at Alberta Relaunch from Janet Brown Opinion Research indicated that 16 per cent of those surveyed thought such issues were among the most important facing the province today.

Issues related to the energy sector were outranked by those surveyed when it came to the economy (19 per cent), health care (25 per cent) and inflation (41 per cent).

"I wasn't surprised to see that inflation came up  No. 1, but that trend has come on so fast in Alberta," said Scott Crockatt, vice-president of the Business Council of Alberta, during a panel discussion on the survey results. "It's a big concern for businesses as well."

Crockatt said he tells the same thing to his members and any political party chasing success: seek out what unites Albertans.

"We'd say a province of belonging, a place of opportunity, and a place of solutions — the kind of place that can solve the next challenge," he said. "So I think the message for business leaders and political leaders is to say, whoever can align themselves with that future of the province is likely to be successful."

The event was hosted by the Calgary-based public relations firm New West Public Affairs, run by Monte Solberg, a former Conservative cabinet member under former prime minister Stephen Harper.

Other speakers included Gerald Butts, former principal secretary to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau; and Ian Brodie, former chief of staff to Harper.