Who should be in Danielle Smith's next cabinet? Experts outline the possibilities

Now that Alberta voters have decided Danielle Smith should remain premier, assembling a new cabinet will be among her first tasks.

She'll likely try to assemble a team with regional and demographic diversity with the right skills to lead in key portfolios, MacEwan University political scientist Brendan Boyd said.

However, politics watchers agree it will be more challenging with a smaller caucus and the loss of experienced ministers.

"It's going to be very difficult to put together a balanced cabinet that reflects the various identities that Albertans hold — and hold to be dear," said political strategist Stephen Carter, president of Decide Campaigns.

Preliminary results from Elections Alberta show voters elected 49 candidates under the UCP banner on Monday.

Smith has already said Jennifer Johnson, who won in Lacombe-Ponoka, will not sit in caucus after a recording revealed her making intolerant comments about transgender children.

That leaves Smith with 47 other members, down from the 60 she had before election day. Ten of them are women, Smith included.

Smith lost eight cabinet ministers on election night. Six did not win their seats, including Health Minister Jason Copping, Seniors, Community and Social Services Minister Jeremy Nixon, and deputy premier and Skilled Trades and Professions Minister Kaycee Madu. Finance Minister Travis Toews, Environment Minister Sonya Savage and government whip Brad Rutherford didn't seek re-election.

The returning officer in Calgary-Acadia is conducting an automatic recount after Justice Minister Tyler Shandro lost to NDP challenger Diana Batten by seven votes.

Losing both Copping and Shandro, who both served as health minister, along with Jason Luan and Nicholas Milliken, who both served as minister of mental health and addiction, is a significant blow to bench strength, Carter said.

"It starts to get very slim pickings, very quickly," he said.

Smith's first cabinet, assembled in October after she won the UCP leadership race, was relatively large with 27 ministers.

Senior campaign strategist Mandi Johnson of Crestview Strategy says it was a move designed to unite a fractured team after a divisive leadership contest.

Johnson, who worked for conservative parties both in government and opposition, says Advanced Education Minister Demetrios Nicolaides, who narrowly won his Calgary riding, is likely to get a senior post, along with ministers Rebecca Schulz, Rajan Sawhney and Brian Jean. Schulz, Sawhney and Jean were among Smith's rivals in the leadership race.

With the UCP shut out of all 20 ridings in Edmonton city limits, Smith will also need representatives from the area around the city, Johnson said.

Affordability and Utilities Minister Matt Jones and Infrastructure Minister and deputy premier Nathan Neudorf, who won by a slim margin in Lethbridge-East, are likely to return, Johnson said.

Assessing the winners' skills

A CBC analysis of successful UCP candidates shows many have worked as business owners, in the energy industry, communications or in agriculture. Three have worked in health-related careers and none publicly declare being certified teachers.

Political scientist Boyd says it's common for conservative governments to have a thinner cadre of people with experience in health, education, or the environment, while progressive governments can struggle to find experts in finance and economics.

Chris Gallaway, executive director of Friends of Medicare, said he sees it as no coincidence electors voted out health and mental health ministers when health care was a top campaign issue.

He said he hopes fresh faces will reconsider the success of privatizing health services and the recovery-centred approach to treating addiction. 

Justice will be an especially challenging post to fill, Boyd says, with just three lawyers among elected candidates — Brian Jean, Mickey Amery and Jason Stephan. The minister doesn't have to be a lawyer, but usually is, he said.

It could also be a precarious position for a politician, Boyd said.

"That's a portfolio that's going to have a lot of scrutiny on it."

Alberta's ethics commissioner found Smith contravened the Conflicts of Interest Act earlier this year when she asked Shandro if there was anything he could do to halt the prosecution of Artur Pawlowski. Shandro told Smith it would be inappropriate for him to intervene.

In May, a justice found Pawlowski guilty of mischief for urging protesters to continue their illegal blockade of the Coutts border crossing to the U.S. They were protesting pandemic health restrictions.

Alberta Teachers' Association president Jason Schilling is hoping for a new education minister, saying the organization of 46,000 teachers had a "rocky, often frosty" relationship with Adriana LaGrange, punctuated by long periods of silence.

Smith has referred to working with teachers as partners, Schilling said. Appointing someone willing to better include teachers in the development of a new curriculum would be a good start, he said.

Rebecca Polak, Smith's spokesperson, said the premier has not yet set a date to announce her selections. She'll meet with caucus members during the next few weeks to discuss their possible future roles, she said.