Looming teacher shortage could 'shock' the London system, says teachers' union

London-area teachers' unions say they aren't surprised the province is facing a looming teacher shortage, saying the problem has been a long time coming.

Ontario is set to see a worsening teacher shortage beginning in 2027 as student enrolment increases and more teachers retire amid a flat supply of new teachers, according to a series of briefing documents for the new minister of education, obtained by The Canadian Press.

It highlights an acute shortage of tech and French-as-second-language teachers.

A "bubble" of local experienced teachers will soon come up for retirement, said both Craig Smith, the head of the Thames Valley local of the Elementary Teachers' Federation of Ontario (ETFO) and John Bernans, District 11 president of the Ontario Secondary School Teachers' Federation (OSSTF).

The departure of these teachers could bring a shock to the system, said Smith. "The current situation we face is going to become quite acute if there aren't plans to replace [those staff]."

About 25 years ago, a "big bubble" of teachers began teaching at the boards, and that same group will soon leave, he said. 

In the late 1990s, more than 15,000 Ontario teachers retired in two years, prompting an influx of new educators who are now themselves retiring.

Excluding French and technology teachers, filling teaching roles at high schools in the London area has been stable Bernans said, noting the province's expansion of high school class sizes has meant fewer teachers are needed.

Hiring educational assistants and psychologists has been harder, he said. 

"Certainly, working conditions have gotten worse... Student behaviours have gotten worse and mental health issues have gotten more significant. Violence issues have worsened as well," he said. 

"It's been very challenging in some areas to recruit people."

The province has halved processing times for domestic and international teaching applicants, is allowing second-year teaching candidates to work as supply teachers, and is implementing a merit-based system for quicker recruitment, a spokesperson for  Education Minister Jill Dunlop said in a statement.

Worry of a looming shortage comes as the Ontario Teachers' Federation estimates some 48,000 certified teachers are not working in the education system, something indicative of conditions at Ontario schools, the unions said. 

"It's a very challenging job and it's a very stressful job. It's not for everybody," Bernans said.

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Enrolment at the region's public and Catholic boards has ballooned with the city's growing population. Last September, Thames Valley District School Board (TVDSB) reported enrolment growth of 6,000 students in four years.

Mark Adkinson, spokesperson for the London District Catholic School Board, said the board's headcount grew more than 30 per cent since 2019 to 27,545, with 1,500 new students this year.

Teacher shortage is already here

"We're in a teacher shortage now, never mind 2027," said Bill Tucker, TVDSB's interim director of education. School boards, especially at the elementary level, have been scrambling to find supply teachers and substitutes, he said.

Tucker previously served as TVDSB's education director, and until April was a lecturer at Western University's faculty of education.

In 2015, facing high unemployment for new teachers, the then-Wynne government extended teachers' college to two years from one. Admission rates fell to 4,500 in 2021 from 7,600 a decade earlier. OSSTF says the move should be reevaluated.

Western's two-year program collapsed last year into 1.5 years amid high demand for new teachers, Tucker said.

In a statement, Donna Kotsopoulos, dean of education at Western, said the condensed timeframe rolled out this fall. "We have also moved our third and fourth terms online to allow for more flexibility for students who are doing their practicum and alternative field experiences in their home communities," she said.

During his time at Western, Tucker said the program saw an increase in applicants, bottlenecked by classroom size and instructors.

Adkinson says the Catholic board has hired more than 450 staff this year, including 100 teachers, and has revised its recruitment process to keep up, including allowing year-round applications.