Cautious optimism ahead of Manitoba's next flood forecast
Province said in January there was a high risk of spring floods
Unseasonably warm weather over the last few weeks has many throughout the province hopeful that the upcoming flood forecast will leave them a little more optimistic than January's did.
The hydrologic forecast centre is set to release its updated February flood forecast Monday — and after January's forecast indicated that Southwestern Manitoba, including the Red, Pembina, Souris, Roseau and lower Assiniboine rivers were at risk of major flooding — many have their fingers crossed for drier conditions.
- Soggy soil could mean spring floods in west, north
- Southwestern Manitoba faces high risk of spring floods
"Things are looking a little more promising but snow cover is traditionally not where our floods come from," McMechan explained.
"Where our floods come from now, [they] seem to be caused by overland flooding, caused by high surface water and rain events. The water table being combined with rain events and quite frankly changes to water management."
McMechan said she is hearing that the ground was saturated heading into winter and the water table is still high.
"That's where we are. Any rain has the potential, under the right circumstances, to put us into a flood situation, maybe not a serious one, but the thought [of the] possibility of that eight [inches of] rain — we've lived through it — it's a possibility, so that's the sort of thing that is worrisome," said McMechan.
Morris has lived through many floods
Gavin van der Linde, the mayor of Morris, said it is still early and the recent weather has allowed for a reasonable amount of snow melting. He said that the people of Morris aren't too worried yet as they have lived through many floods before.
Van der Linde said he is aware of the reports from the U.S. National Weather Service which say there there could be major flooding near the Canada U.S. border this spring. He said the timing will be a critical issue.
"We're expecting some reasonably high water, but with the water, with the soil saturation in full as we get into spring, I hope there is still a lot of time. Fortunately we have months to prepare in Manitoba with the Red River," said van der Linde.
"Once the highway gets closed, the main Highway 75, that's when there is more of an impact on community. Whether it's just simple commuting or whether it's an economic impact, we always hope for the best-case scenario," said van der Linde.
Flood-proofing Highway 75
The province announced in 2014 that it would spend $200 million to flood-proof Highway 75, the main commercial route from Manitoba to the United States. Van der Linde said they can see a lot of the work has already been started on the highway south of Morris, including the replacement of the northbound lanes around St. Jean, but he said none of the improvements are slated to be ready in time for any potential flooding this year.
Dan Mazier, president of Keystone Agriculture Producers, said the fields in most agricultural areas in the Red River and Assiniboine valleys are saturated and that while the recent warm weather has been a bonus, it's Mother Nature that will have the biggest impact on potential flooding.
"Mother Nature bats last usually. If she co-operates we'll be OK. I think the Red River basin and the western part of the province — both basins are really wet this year so we'll have to watch it," said Mazier.
Five variables determine flood conditions: soil moisture at freeze-up in the fall, the channel capacity of rivers, moisture levels in snow, the rate of the snow melt and precipitation during the spring melt.
McMechan, whose municipality was devastated by a mid-summer rain storm in 2014, said regardless of the outlook, people in her RM haven't lost the pioneer spirit.
"They're still, 'We'll be fine. We'll live through it, whatever it is.' Don't get your 'skirt-in-a-bunch' type of thing. They're very, very practical, resilient people," said McMechan.