Justin Trudeau's 3rd visit to Manitoba could indicate Liberal hopes for big wins

Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau will be in Winnipeg on Saturday night, looking to shore up support and win new votes in a number of ridings said to be at play for the party.

Trudeau will make an appearance at the St. James Civic Centre on Ness Avenue for an event dubbed Winnipeg Wants Real Change Now. It will mark his third stop to the city. 

• Justin Trudeau returns to Winnipeg 2 days before election

Political analyst Christopher Adams said he's not surprised by the visit, considering the number of seats that could be at play in the province. 

"There are four or five ridings that quite realistically might flip over to the Liberals in this election," said Adams, who points to Winnipeg South Centre, Winnipeg South, Winnipeg Centre and Kildonan-St. Paul as possible wins for the party. He also added Saint Boniface-St. Vital to that list.

He said a seat or two either way could make a big difference.

"If you think of that, in a very close race, the Liberals when you look at the seat projections, [are] a few seats ahead of the Conservatives. This could mean the difference between the Liberal minority versus the Conservative minority, or it could mean the difference between the Liberal minority and a Liberal majority."

Currently the Liberal's only seat in the province is held in Winnipeg North by incumbent Kevin Lamoureux. But, last month a poll by Probe Research suggested Liberals and Conservatives have been vying for the lead in Manitoba.

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Adams said a visit by a federal leader less than a day and a half before the polls open can have an impact at the polls. 

"It firstly energizes the volunteers and the workers and it shows the national party really thinks they're very active and they have a shot at winning," said Adams, adding it can also grab the attention of voters.

"Justin Trudeau has a good reputation for dealing with crowds and shaking hands and interacting with people, so it's nothing but good for the Liberal party. The same boost happened for the NDP when Mulcair was in town, and also a boost when Harper was here a couple of times."

CBC News has partnered with ThreeHundredEight.com to track trends in this election.

On Thursday, ThreeHundredEight.com projected that as of October 15,  the Liberals are favoured to win in five Manitoba ridings: Winnipeg South Centre, Winnipeg South, Winnipeg North, Saint-Boniface-St. Vital and Churchill- Keewatinook Aski.

Follow the leader 

David McLaughlin, a former Conservative chief of staff based in Ontario, said where leaders go during a campaign can be quite meaningful.  

"It tells you where they think they can win, or where they think they need to shore up seats they already have." said McLaughlin.

With time running out on the campaign trail, party leaders will be focusing on mobilizing support, he said. 

"Now is the time to focus on the one thing, the ballot question that you want to have in people's minds as they go vote," said McLaughlin. 

At this point Conservative Leader Stephen Harper and NDP Leader Tom Mulcair, who have both visited Manitoba during the election campaign, have not announced any further visits to Winnipeg in advance of Oct. 19.