N.L. the only province to see population drop since 2016, says new census
Immigration is key to the province's future, says minister
Canada's newest census shows Newfoundland and Labrador is the only Canadian province to see a drop in population over the past five years.
According to the data released by Statistics Canada, the province's population dropped 1.8 per cent between 2016 and 2021. In 2016, the province's population sat at 519,716. By last year, it had dropped to 510,550.
For comparison, Canada's population rose 5.2 per cent as a whole, while the other Atlantic provinces grew by an average of 5.6 per cent.
The data suggest the province saw its largest drop in rural areas of Newfoundland, as the population of Corner Brook — which Statistics Canada lists as a small urban centre — dropped by almost four per cent.
Conversely, the City of St. John's, the province's largest urban centre, saw its population grow by two per cent over the five-year span.
For Immigration Minister Gerry Byrne, the numbers are in line with what the province already projected. However, he says it highlights the need to grow the province's population through means like immigration.
"The news is grim, because of course the forecasts also say that for the next 30 years, the population of Newfoundland and Labrador is expected to decline," Byrne told CBC News Wednesday.
"It puts it into real stark contrast and really highlights the importance of growing our population in Newfoundland and Labrador, the consequences of not doing so are dire and significant."
However, Byrne says the news when it comes to the province's population isn't all bad.
In the three quarters that followed the recording of the census in May, Newfoundland and Labrador's population grew by more than 2,000 residents, according to Byrne and data provided by the provincial government. Byrne says the majority came from immigration, which government has increasingly focused on in recent years.
The province plans to welcome 5,100 immigrants into the province per year by 2026. More than 1,600 immigrants came to Newfoundland and Labrador last year, according to Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada.
Immigration was also a leading factor in national population growth, according to Statistics Canada, who say nearly four-fifths of population growth since 2016 can be attributed to those moving here from other countries.
The other one-fifth comes from natural increase, or the number of births minus the number of deaths. Newfoundland and Labrador isn't seeing natural growth, however, as the number of deaths in the province has outweighed births each year since 2016.
"The only way that we can mitigate that is through immigration," Bryne said.
"We need to attract more younger people to contribute to the economy, contribute to the overall standard of living and the viability of our province. And we're seeing that happen. We're seeing a huge surge of new people wanting to come to a new place called Newfoundland and Labrador."
Retention a key metric, says population expert
Rob Greenwood, president of Memorial University's Harris Centre, which studies population demographics and public policy, says the data shouldn't be a surprise with the province's history of outmigration and declining fertility rates.
"The real long-term trend is a drop in fertility rates. Women of child-bearing age are having fewer children, and that's a worldwide trend. We used to have the highest fertility rate in Canada, now we have the lowest," he said.
Greenwood called the work to bring more immigrants into the province "absolutely critical," but said the province also has to find ways to keep those who arrive in Newfoundland and Labrador in the province.
"We have a challenge with retention. Many immigrants come here and then move on to larger urban centres on the mainland," Greenwood said. "We need more attention on regional economic development, community economic development. Because there are real differences in the opportunities and the assets in each area of the province."
Byrne says increased immigration would benefit the province as a whole.
"Our benefits that we receive from Ottawa for health and for education are per-capita based. So if anyone has any doubts about the value of immigration, I would implore you to explore, seek out and understand," Byrne said.
"There are many, many, many reasons. The strongest being that diversity and inclusion makes us stronger."
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With files from Carolyn Stokes