The Tories' struggle to find a candidate to replace Charlene Johnson

Somewhere in southeast Asia, former Progressive Conservative politician Charlene Johnson is adapting well to her new life.

She’s taking swimming lessons, working on a master’s degree, and enjoying family life with her young daughter and husband.

Back in her former district of Trinity-Bay de Verde, however, things are not going quite so smoothly for the party she once represented in the provincial legislature.

• Charlene Johnson: Tories 'not a sinking ship'

On Thursday afternoon, the Tories opened nominations for the byelection in Trinity-Bay de Verde, as well as one in Humber East, the seat of former premier Tom Marshall. Nominations in both districts close on Saturday afternoon. 

In Johnson's own district, the talk has been about what has taken so long for the race to officially start. 

It’s been more than six weeks since Johnson abruptly left politics as the province’s finance minister as well as the member for Trinity-Bay de Verde, the district she represented for 11 years.

She was the youngest woman ever elected to the House of Assembly, and had no problem winning three consecutive elections.

Changing landscape

But that was largely during a period of soaring popularity for the PCs, largely under the leadership of former premier Danny Williams.

• Peter Cowan on the three byelections that the Tories are desperate to win

The political landscape has changed. 

It appears there’s no better example of this change at the moment than the process of electing a new MHA for this district, which spans the eastern edge of Trinity Bay and the north shore of Conception Bay, and includes some 19 communities and roughly 7,000 eligible voters.

The ink wasn’t even dry on Johnson’s resignation papers when the Liberals, riding high following a string of byelection victories and rising popularity, announced that Steve Crocker would be its candidate.

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Crocker is a political pugilist, having served as executive assistant to Liberal Leader Dwight Ball, and as an aide to Avalon MP Scott Andrews.

He’s described as a strong organizer, and he owns a business in the district.

Crocker has been quietly campaigning for many months, and is now on the hustings nearly every day, connecting with an electorate that has traditionally been on the side of government.

Trinity-Bay de Verde is an obvious bellwether, and the Tories need very much to hold it as the months slip away toward a provincial general election, likely sometime in 2015.

'It's a mess'

But even the staunchest PC supporters in the district are on edge, understanding that as each day passes, the party falls behind the Liberals.

​The Tories have certainly had  time to find someone. Johnson, after all, left office two weeks before Terry French resigned as the MHA for Conception Bay South, and that byelection will  be over on Nov. 5. 

“It’s a mess for the PCs,” said a longtime supporter of Charlene Johnson, who asked not to be identified.

Six weeks is a long time to not have identified and trotted out a candidate, especially when you’re the party in power and the district has been a safe bet for so long.

So what’s the problem?

Could the fact that Johnson never opened a constituency office in the district be a factor?

Having a high profile executive assistant in the district can sometimes make for good succession planning.

Is it symbolic of what Trinity South businessman and PC supporter Jerry Byrne admits is a “red tide” of growing Liberal support?

We need someone to buck that (Liberal) trend.- Jerry Byrne

Byrne was being touted as a potential PC candidate, but confirmed Thursday he won’t be stepping forward.

Byrne operates several hospitality and tourism-related businesses in the Trinity South area, and though he did consider it “to see if everything would line up,” he says entering politics would be a “disservice” to those operations.

While he expresses complete confidence in Premier Paul Davis, Byrne admits that holding the district will be a challenge.

“We need someone to buck that (Liberal) trend,” says Byrne.

Could the right candidate be Allan Ash, a noted fisherman and community builder from Hant’s Harbour?

When reached Thursday morning, Ash said he’s “not sure yet” about whether he’ll seek the nomination.

On her way out, Charlene Johnson commented that the PCs are not a “sinking ship.”

She’s entitled to her opinion, but it’s not hard to imagine that the party faithful at their bailing stations, trying to keep the PC ship afloat.