2024 Yukon River Chinook salmon run better than previous years, still not enough to meet rebuilding goal

While the 2024 Yukon River Chinook salmon run was the strongest one in recent years, it was still the third-smallest on record and not enough to meet conservation goals on either side of the Yukon-Alaska border.

Preliminary estimates provided by the Alaska Department of Fish and Game (ADF&G) and Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) say a total of 64,496 Chinook salmon were counted at Pilot Station this year, the closest sonar site to the mouth of the river. 

Of those fish, an estimated 24,112 eventually made it to the sonar at Eagle, Alaska, which sits near the international border and is used to determine how many Canadian-origin Chinook return to spawn every year.

The run is an improvement from last year's, which was the second-smallest on record, and nearly 20,000-salmon stronger than the 2022 run, which was the smallest ever seen.

The number of Chinook that crossed into Canada this year was also more than double the number counted in 2022, though still far short of the ambitious 71,000-fish goal laid out in an international rebuilding agreement signed in May.

Yukon River Chinook salmon run sizes have been steadily declining since the 1980s, with historical runs well into the six-figures. Canadian-origin fish have been hit particularly hard over the last few years, with tens of thousands of salmon counted near the mouth of the river failing to make it to the border.

Scientists are researching why salmon are dying en-masse during their migration. Possible culprits include water level and temperature as well as disease. The pre-season forecast estimated that only 13,000 Chinook would make it into the Yukon this year, accounting for in-river mortality.  

'If we lose hope, then we really don't have much else'

But the die-off didn't appear to happen this year, said DFO senior stock assessment biologist Adam O'Dell, with the number of Canadian-origin fish counted at Pilot Station being fairly consistent with the number counted at Eagle. 

O'Dell described that as a "bright spot" and said it was good to see higher overall numbers compared to previous years. But he cautioned against making any "broader conclusions" about whether the 2024 run could indicate promising future returns. 

"We're talking about a species that has around a seven-year life cycle, so — it's one year," he said. 

"I would like to see this happen for a number more years and potentially increase even further. It would be nice even if it would stabilize at a lower number like this…. It's absolutely good to see, but I wouldn't hold my breath. I would sit on it for a little while to see how it goes."

While the international rebuilding agreement also came with a seven-year fishing moratorium, O'Dell said that due to the length of the Chinook life cycle, any impacts it has on returns — and the impacts of any current conservation measures — won't be seen for the better part of a decade. 

Yukon Salmon Sub-Committee chair Dennis Zimmermann also said people need to be "cautious" about what the stronger 2024 season means, but added it offered a glimmer of hope amid the "despair" over Chinook in recent years. 

"If we lose hope, then we really don't have much else and you know, we have to stay connected, we have to continue our relationship with these fish even in this time of really having no harvest," he said.

Zimmermann said he's more hopeful after seeing Chinook returning this season to spawning grounds where they hadn't been spotted, or only been spotted in very low numbers. He also said it was encouraging to see governments, organizations and the public talking about salmon and working together to rebuild and conserve the species. 

"I'm really trying to be optimistic and I'd like this all to succeed, and I think we have to manifest success to some extent," he said. 

"I just feel like we need a lot of cheerleading right now and also to let these fish.… do what they need to do."