New boundaries will push political power from P.E.I. edges to the middle

The P.E.I. Boundaries Commission has produced two sample maps it's taking along as it conducts community consultation meetings across the Island.

The maps are for illustrative purposes only, and neither will likely become P.E.I.'s new electoral map.

But both maps help illustrate the continuing shift of population — and thus, eventually, political power — taking place on Prince Edward Island.

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Under legislation, P.E.I. is required to review its electoral boundaries after every third election. That's when those imaginary lines that separate one political district from another are examined to see whether they should shift to reflect the population changes over the past decade or so.

What the two sample maps show, and what the new electoral map will surely reflect, is a continuing shift of political power from the east and west of the Island toward the centre.

Take this sandwich, please

Here's a crazy idea: imagine a sandwich wrapped in cellophane. This being P.E.I., we'll make it a lobster sandwich.

Draw P.E.I.'s current electoral map on that cellophane. Now place your thumb on Summerside, place a finger just east of Stratford, and pinch them closer together.

The electoral districts to the east and west are being stretched out, getting bigger. The ones in the middle are being compressed.

This is not far off from what's about to happen with the real Island electoral map.

"There's been a lot of decline in populations in both the east and the west, people have moved toward the centre of the province," says former justice Gerard Mitchell, appointed as the chair of P.E.I.'s Electoral Boundaries Commission.

Communities close to cities growing

Meanwhile bedroom communities (and the electoral districts that contain them) have grown.

This is reflected most dramatically in the first of the two sample maps, which shows the five current rural districts west of Summerside becoming four. At the other end of the Island the six rural districts east of the Hillsborough River make a shift westwards, toward the Charlottetown area, with half of District 7 crossing over the Hillsborough.

The Town of Souris has seen its population decrease 15 per cent since the last electoral map was drawn up in 2006. Mayor David MacDonald seems resigned to the fact that the province's eastern-most electoral district will grow, Souris will constitute an ever-smaller proportion of it, and rural parts of the province will see more of their political clout redistributed to cities and suburbs.

'We have to go with the flow'

"Obviously there's going to be some changes made because of population shifts," he said. "While those of us living in rural P.E.I. aren't necessarily enthusiastic about it, we have to go with the flow."

But one thing he would like to see is government strike a better balance distributing the clout that exists on various boards and agencies. For example, of the 11 members of Health PEI's board of directors, only two are from Kings County. Of the 24 people that sit on the province's two new community health engagement committees, only four are from Kings.

MacDonald said combined with the fact there are no more elected trustees to represent English schools in the province, it all adds up to "a lack of proper representation" for the province's rural areas.

Boundaries not just about numbers

The second of the Boundaries Commission's two sample maps allows for greater variation in the number of voters in each district, and in this hypothetical case, results in a less-severe pinching of the political ends of the Island.

According to the legislation, the commission can create smaller and larger districts within plus-or-minus 25 per cent of the overall average number of voters per district.

In fact Gerard Mitchell said 25 per cent would be an extreme case, that the goal will be to create districts within plus-or-minus five-to-ten per cent. Besides the number of voters in each district, the commission is instructed to consider things like municipal boundaries and communities of interest.

'Their vote counts as much as anyone else's'

"Numbers are important – but it's not just a numbers exercise," Mitchell said. "We're dealing here with people and their votes."

But ultimately he suggested it's not fair to voters in districts like Stratford-Kinlock, which currently numbers 42 per cent more than the provincial average, to allow large discrepancies between districts.

"They want to be sure their vote counts as much as anyone else's," he said. "So you want to make sure your districts are reasonably balanced so that one voter's franchise isn't diluted relative to another's."

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