P.E.I.'s carbon emissions numbers don't factor in growing demand for electricity

The P.E.I. government's plan to reduce the province's carbon footprint doesn't factor in emissions for electricity used in P.E.I., but generated in New Brunswick.

As the province points out, that's because federal rules dictate emissions belong in the jurisdiction in which they're created, not, as in the case of electricity, in the province which uses the output.

But an engineering professor at UPEI says while the push to shift the province from oil to electric heat is reducing emissions overall, it's also shifting some of those emissions out of province, where most of the electricity is generated to meet P.E.I.'s growing demand.

"I think it's problematic to not take responsibility for emissions that are generated based on our electricity use," said Prof. Matthew Hall, whose research focuses on renewable energy.

"If we actually want to be mitigating climate change we need to look at all the emissions we're responsible for, and that includes electricity generation."

Where P.E.I.'s electricity comes from

About 25 per cent of the province's electricity is generated on-Island in the form of wind energy.

The rest comes from New Brunswick and ranges from clean hydro, to nuclear energy from the Point Lepreau generating station, to coal-fired electricity from the plant in Belledune.

According to the PEI Energy Corporation, electricity imports to P.E.I. have risen from 1,060 gigawatt hours in 2014 to 1,110 gigawatt hours in 2017, with associated 2017 carbon emissions in New Brunswick estimated at 330,000 tonnes.

Source: NB Power

When an Island household switches from an oil furnace to an air source heat pump, most of the electricity required comes from New Brunswick.

And while there's a significant decrease in emissions for P.E.I. for getting rid of the oil, supplying the electricity to operate that heat pump creates emissions in New Brunswick — about one-third to one-fifth of the emissions the oil would have generated.

But because of the way emissions are calculated, heat pumps produce no emissions as far as P.E.I. is concerned — at least on paper.

"Those are the rules set down by Ottawa," said Todd Dupuis, P.E.I.'s executive director of climate change and environment. "When it comes to owning emissions … it's based solely on emissions that you create within your borders."

Dupuis pointed out that NB Power will stop using coal to generate electricity by 2030 as part of a federal phase-out, making the electricity P.E.I. imports cleaner. He suggested NB Power might be emissions-free by then, though clarified the company has not set that target.

"We think the mix from New Brunswick is only going to get cleaner, and the solution [to climate change] is to electrify everything," said Dupuis.

3,000 heat pump rebates in 2018 (so far)

Energy Minister Paula Biggar provided an update on the province's pursuit of that solution to the provincial legislature on Nov. 28.

She said since Efficiency PEI opened in 2008, its "energy efficiency programs have reduced CO2 emissions by 33,000 tonnes and saved more than 11 million litres of home heating oil to date."

She also said that more than 2,400 Island households had taken advantage of rebate programs to install heat pumps since April 1, 2018. That figure now stands at 3,000.

But Efficiency PEI confirmed those emissions figures don't take into account the additional emissions generated in New Brunswick as a result of P.E.I.'s increasing heat pump use. And the agency said overall about one-quarter of Island homes rely on some form of electric heat.

Small portion of reduction target

Those 3,000 new heat pumps will account for between 1,800 and 3,000 tonnes of emissions per year in New Brunswick, based on Hall's calculations and figures provided by government.

That's still much less than the carbon emissions eliminated by switching away from oil, and it's a small portion of P.E.I.'s overall target to reduce emissions by 200,000 tonnes by the year 2030. 

Hall said it makes no difference to the environment where the emissions are generated.

"Climate change doesn't care about provincial borders," he said. "Really what we should be caring about is total emissions, regardless of where they happen."

Like cheating on a diet, say Greens

Green Leader Peter Bevan-Baker, who's been critical of government's plan to reduce emissions, likened the situation to cheating on a diet.

"If you don't count some of the calories that you're consuming, then you're not going to be very successful in achieving your goals."

He said the province should be more transparent with emissions figures under its plan.

"People are telling us we have a decade or so to solve this problem," he said. "We need real action, and in order to have real action we need accurate data, and this is not accurate data."

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