Sask.'s hospitality sector has become a COVID long-hauler. We all need to work together to drive the recovery

This opinion piece is by Shawn Moen, the co-founder and CEO of Saskatoon's 9 Mile Legacy Brewing. He holds law degrees from the University of Saskatchewan and Osgoode Hall Law School at York University.

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The fourth wave of COVID-19 has been the worst-case scenario for Saskatchewan. 

Our ICUs are overwhelmed. We have set records in both per capita infection and morbidity rates, at times leading the nation in both. Plans are being made to transport our sick neighbours and friends to Ontario for treatment. This is not a proud Saskatchewan moment.

On top of the human cost, it has been devastating for the Saskatchewan hospitality sector.

For many operators, the last 19 months have been about constructing a business model and seeing it ravaged by changes to the public health situation. The fourth wave is one of those scenarios.

9 Mile Legacy, the brewery I co-own, has been in business for more than six years and distributes throughout the province. The nature of the business provides a window into much of Saskatoon's food and beverage industry.

The local hospitality sector appears to be in Week 6 of a significant economic trough, seeing an economic drop of 30 to 40 per cent per week. 

Foot traffic and sales have dropped significantly since the start of September. Events and conferences have been cancelled en masse. Many of us speculate that this is due to low consumer confidence caused by unacceptably high COVID-19 infection and ICU numbers, and the short-term volatility that accompanies the new (and necessary) vaccine passport rules.

To make matters worse, many of our operators have become the business equivalent of a COVID-19 long-hauler, taking on significant debt to protect our businesses and the safety — both physical and financial — of our colleagues. 

Cracks are starting to show after 19 months of acute stress and nimbleness. The capacity for more disruption is at an end. The relevance of many government support programs is reduced or vanishing. These operators are also facing rising food costs, increased fuel and utility prices and difficulties in hiring staff.

These realities are not reflected in any of the recent optimistic portraits of Saskatchewan's economic growth. 

What we need to do

This is not a hopeful picture for a province trying to navigate what we hope are the final days of the pandemic.

But as I reflect on our situation, and attempt to once again plan for our business's future amidst uncertainty, I see a path toward a hopeful conclusion of this pandemic. There can still be an outcome where businesses recover alongside public health – an outcome that each of us desires, no matter our differences.

To ensure that our industry survives through to spring, we need a combination of the following:

1) Vaccinated people must be pragmatic and confident.

With the vaccine mandate now in place and a much lower risk of contagion for fully vaccinated asymptomatic people, restaurants, bars and event venues have never been safer. There are many responsible ways for vaccinated people to gather that are consistent with managing the health-care crisis. 

We need vaccinated people to confidently lead the way to economic recovery. Unvaccinated people need to get vaccinated and join them in that leadership.

2) Government policy must be informed by the lessons learned throughout the pandemic.

Our best moments through the pandemic saw creative government programs, multi-level collaboration, flexible regulation and proactive public communication. 

Our worst policy moments in the fourth wave have involved a lack of clarity (the shifting vaccine passport rules), a repeal of otherwise useful initiatives with little notice (home delivery of alcohol for restaurants), or confusing resistance to input from other levels of government. 

The former approach will help businesses digest the developing public health situation and plan for the future. The latter approach will exacerbate the damage.

3) Consumers must continue to embrace creative business models and non-seasonal spending. 

The post-holiday season will be the leanest for operators. Many will truly approach the financial brink.

I would like to see fully vaccinated guests rally into bars and restaurants (as I recently experienced in British Columbia).

I acknowledge there will be a lingering unease until our kids are also vaccinated. I am a business owner, but I am also a dad.

For hesitant consumers, I encourage an enthusiastic return to home delivery options, or exploration of creative get-togethers after the holiday season. Festivus parties in January anyone?

4) Extra effort from government on renewed debt relief or grant/subsidy programs.

Assuming they survive, most operators will arrive at spring with heavy debt burdens related to both maintaining ordinary operations and exploring creative initiatives. 

The effectiveness of government support programs has waned. Businesses trying to recover in spring will face a lack of working capital. Many may find recovery impossible. 

A province of hope-builders

The stakes are high in Saskatchewan for both the public health system and the small business community.  

This is not only about saving lives and livelihoods, but also preserving the sort of community that we want as the pandemic ends. Our places of connection, our community pride points and the moments that make Saskatchewan unique – these are all very much at risk.

We have long been a province of hope-builders that stick together in our most challenging times. That is our true outlier status and one we take pride in.

Let's get back to that version of Saskatchewan.

This column is part of CBC's Opinion section. For more information about this section, please read this editor's blog and our FAQ.

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