Re-drawn boundaries could help account for NDP leader Cam Broten's loss in Saskatchewan election
Broten's new constituency included a new territory with strong Sask. Party support, professor says
Running in a re-drawn constituency could be one of the factors that hurt NDP leader Cam Broten in the Saskatchewan election, and ultimately led to him losing his seat.
Broten always had a close race. In 2011 he beat the Saskatchewan Party candidate by 740 votes in what was then Saskatoon Massey Place. If the new 2016 boundaries had existed for Saskatoon Westview when the 2011 votes were counted, Broten would have only won by 439 votes.
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It's not a big difference, but combined with the other factors at play it could have helped Saskatchewan Party candidate David Buckinham ultimately win the constituency by 232 votes Monday night.
Joe Garcea, a professor of political studies at the University of Saskatchewan, says an analysis of the new territory in Broten's 2016 constituency shows those polls had strong Saskatchewan Party support.
"I think it's one of the major factors, not the only factors, that account for his loss," Garcea said.
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Between the 2011 and 2016 provincial elections there was another tight election — the 2013 NDP leadership race. Broten narrowly beat Ryan Meili for the job by 44 votes.
Meili was at the NDP headquarters Monday night. He spoke of how hard Broten worked, and said "the Brad Wall machine is not an easy one to overcome." But Meili also gave a frank take on what went wrong.
"The thing that I hope we take away is we can't focus as much as we do on the Sask. Party," he said. "We need to reveal the mistakes that they make. We also need to be showing our vision. Telling that story of an alternate future for Saskatchewan, one that people can get really excited about, be inspired by. Until then, all the criticism in the world isn't going to turn people's heads."
An NDP leader losing his seat was just one of the ways the 2016 election mimicked the one in 2011.
Broten still has options to try to make it back into the legislature. Someone from his party who was elected could step down and a byelection could be held. Premier Brad Wall said in that case the government would cooperate to set a quick election date.