With a Saskatchewan provincial election just months away, experts warn about putting faith in a single poll

As Saskatchewan hurtles toward a provincial election in October, experts say the result is still difficult to predict. 

They say limited polling in the province makes it hard to tell where things stand.

"For someone like me who follows the polls and follows the trends, I'd like to see some more numbers just to have a better clue of, actually, where things stand in the province," Eric Grenier told CBC's Blue Sky this week. 

Grenier, the publisher, writer and podcaster of The Writ, said the provincial election will be worth watching. 

LISTEN| New poll suggests tight race in Sask.'s upcoming election. But is that the case? 

Blue Sky49:13New poll suggests tight race in Sask.'s upcoming election — But is that the case?

In Saskatchewan we talk weather, Roughriders and politics.And it may be mid-August but provincial political candidates are already on the campaign trail.Voters will head to the polls in the Fall.Today we're taking a look at the election and the results of a recent poll suggesting a tight race.We'll talk to a political scientist and a polls expert. 

A recent poll from Saskatoon-based Insightrix Research found the margin between the Saskatchewan Party and Saskatchewan NDP seems to have narrowed among decided voters.

The poll, which surveyed 860 people from July 23 to July 26, found that among people who said they are decided voters, 48 per cent favoured the NDP compared to 47 per cent for the Sask. Party.

A similar poll in September 2023 had 53 per cent in favour of the Sask. Party and 39 per cent in favour of the NDP.

Meanwhile, a poll released by Angus Reid Institute in March showed the Saskatchewan Party with a 12-point lead across the province.

That poll, which surveyed 504 people from Feb. 28 to March 12, showed a significant gap between the parties, but highlighted that the Saskatchewan Party had the lowest support seen in years. 

Experts say the most recent Insightrix poll should be approached cautiously. 

"Let's be very, very careful when we see polls that are showing different results, not to pick the poll that we like better or the poll that produces the result that we think is more in line with what we expect to happen," said Daniel Westlake, an assistant professor of political studies at the University of Saskatchewan.

Westlake told CBC's Blue Sky this week that there can sometimes be outlier polls, where a result is significantly different from others. 

Westlake said different polling firms use different methodology, and while that doesn't mean one is better than the other, it does mean they may reach different voters.

"Sometimes you reach people who are more educated, or one pollster will reach voters who are more trusting. Another pollster choosing a different method ends up having trouble reaching those same groups of voters and that can lead to somewhat different results across polls," said Westlake. 

Grenier echoed that sentiment.

He said a common thread running through all of the available polling is a significant rural-urban divide in the province. 

"It's more or less 2-to-1 for NDP in the cities, 2-to-1 Sask. Party in rural areas," he said. "Will it end up being like that during an election campaign? I don't know."

Grenier said the urban-rural divide could mean a tight race that comes down to just a handful of seats. 

He said that if that's how it plays out, this upcoming provincial election could be ono of the closest in more than two decades.