Should Toronto hit the brakes on the $1B Gardiner East project? A city hall debate could be coming

A Toronto city councillor wants an update on the costs of the Gardiner East project to see if there's an off-ramp the city can take to avoid the costly restoration work on the aging elevated expressway.

Coun. Josh Matlow pushed the issue onto a key city committee agenda in a bid to re-open debate on the controversial project, which council voted on back in 2016. At that time, councillors decided to spend just over $1 billion on the "hybrid" option, which retains the eastern portion of the expressway, moving it farther north while tearing down a ramp over Logan Avenue. 

"Rebuilding new sections of an elevated expressway takes us away from all of our other priorities," Matlow said Friday.

The choice was made instead of tearing down a 1.7-kilometre section of the Gardiner east of Jarvis Street and replacing it with a surface-level boulevard for less than half the cost. 

Matlow, who represents Ward 12, Toronto-St. Paul's, said council needs an update on the progress and the cost of the project to date. That might lead to the city re-considering the decision altogether, he said.

"It's not good urban planning. It's not a good use of money. But especially in the context of a finite budget that has a shortfall of hundreds of millions of dollars, I think it's just really reckless."

City staff say approximately $500 million earmarked for the project has been spent or committed to in contracts. The city said Friday an additional $770 million is set aside in the city's 10-year capital budget for work still planned to begin in 2026. 

The project represents approximately 14 per cent of the city's overall 10-year capital plan, Stephen Conforti, the executive director of the city's Financial Planning Division, said in a statement.

Approximately $60 million is set aside to be spent on the project in 2023, which is 14 per cent of the city transportation department's $435-million capital budget.

The work already completed on the project cost $340 million and includes realignment of both the expressway from Cherry Street to the Don Valley Parkway and Lake Shore Boulevard, and new on and off ramps east of Cherry Street.

But city staff warned this week that the cost of the other work on Lake Shore Boulevard needs updated costing.That includes "public realm" construction, utility relocations, and electrical work. Staff could provide updated projections for that as soon as next month.

 "The estimate did not account for the significant inflation that's being experienced on construction projects," City Manager Paul Johnson warned in a report to council this week.

This comes at a time when the COVID-19 pandemic has driven up the city's budget gap to $1.5 billion for combined costs in 2022 and 2023. 

It's likely 'costs have escalated': Fletcher

Coun. Paula Fletcher, whose ward is home to part of the project, said she's eager to hear a cost update, but is predicting an increase.

"We're going to find out that the costs have escalated because the original numbers were in 2013 dollars, so here we are in 2023," she said. "And I think anybody knows that when you renovate an old anything, you're going to find a few problems."

The Gardiner Expressway was built in segments between 1955 and 1966. When council adopted the "hybrid" plan, which includes rehabilitating aging portions of the expressway, staff said it was an urgent matter because the roadway was reaching the end of its service life.

But Fletcher cautioned that changing course will not be simple because multiple projects in the Port Lands are now linked to on-going Gardiner East work.

"The projects look like they're all nested together," she said. "I just know that we'll want to know some numbers … It might turn out it wasn't the best decision financially for the small number of commuters that it was set to save time for."

In 2016, proponents of keeping the Gardiner East said its removal would create congestion and hurt Toronto's economy. The city's traffic modelling predicted full removal — breaking the link between the Gardiner and Don Valley Parkway — would add between three and five minutes to commutes. 

But Fletcher said traffic studies have also shown that most drivers don't use that section of the highway daily. 

"I think we need to be very forensic and not emotional while we're looking at this and come up with what could be a plan," she said.

'An inflationary moment' 

Matti Siemiatycki, the director of the Infrastructure Institute at the University of Toronto, said he expects costs for the project have jumped. 

"There's a saying with construction that the best time to have done it was always yesterday," Siemiatycki said.

"We are in an inflationary moment and construction has not been spared and the costs are rising."

Siemiatycki said he's not surprised to see the "hot-button" issue of the Gardiner raised again. Some factors surrounding the debate remain the same as in 2016, like the city's housing and climate challenges, and moving cars and goods through downtown, he said.

But the city's fiscal picture has darkened significantly, Siemiatycki said.

"You're starting to see people talking about the city feeling shabby … and I think that might be contributing to why this project is in the spotlight again," he said.

"It is such a large part of the capital budget, the financial dynamics have changed." 

Mayor's office warns of $340M in 'throwaway costs'

Mayor John Tory repeatedly said during the election last year that he would not revisit the decision to go ahead with the project. His office said Friday that changing course would result in "throwaway costs" of $340 million.

"This project is well underway — one section, essentially half — has already been rebuilt and the on/off Logan ramps have already been removed," Tory spokesperson Taylor Deasley said in a statement.

Altering the plan is expected to save no money, and could possibly cost the city more money, she added.

"Councillors pushing this myth conveniently ignore that there is still 16 kilometres of expressway ... that needs to be kept in a state of good repair."