As Venezuela courts chaos, some of Maduro's allies demand receipts of election win
Historic allies and enemies alike refuse to take victory claims in Venezuela at face value
Traditional allies appear to have abandoned Nicolas Maduro as protests rock Venezuela in the wake of Sunday's election, which the longtime president claims to have won with 51.2 per cent of the vote.
Maduro was quickly recognized as the winner by Cuba, Nicaragua, Honduras and Bolivia, as well as Russia, China and Iran. But he got no recognition from nominally left-wing governments in the region's biggest countries: Brazil, Mexico and Colombia.
"The heavy-hitting diplomatic players in the region have demanded proof [of his win]," said Christopher Hernandez-Roy of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C.
"I think the three of them have realized that the level of fraud is just so astronomically huge that nobody in their right mind can believe this result, and so it would be very difficult for them to join the usual chorus of leftist governments congratulating Maduro for his victory."
The Atlanta-based Carter Center, which had deployed observers in Venezuela, said on Tuesday evening that the election "did not meet international standards of electoral integrity and cannot be considered democratic."
The U.S. and Canada have been somewhat subdued in their reactions to Maduro's claim of victory.
Washington and Ottawa are calling on Venezuela to release detailed vote results, as is the European Union, but neither the U.S. nor Canada has yet formally declared rival candidate Edmundo González the winner.
The Trudeau government took a much more active role five years ago, when Juan Guaido emerged as a rival president to Maduro. Canada hosted the Venezuelan opposition in Ottawa and, with Peru, formed the Lima Group of countries that wanted to oust Maduro by peaceful means.
Lula demands receipts
Brazil's President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva — historically sympathetic to the socialist movement started by the late Venezuelan leader Hugo Chavez — spoke on Tuesday with U.S. President Joe Biden, and the two let it be known they were in agreement in insisting Maduro provide proof of his claimed victory.
In Caracas, Lula's envoy Celso Amorim met with Maduro on Tuesday and pressured him to release full results. So far, the Maduro government has only released an aggregate number, with no poll-by-poll breakdown.
Later that day, Lula went on Brazil's Globo TV and said the solution to the Venezuelan impasse was simple: "Present the voting records." He added that "those who aren't in agreement have the right to express themselves and prove why they don't agree, just as the government has the right to prove why it is correct."
Colombia's Foreign Minister Luis Gilberto Murillo posted a video message on X in which he said that "for the peace of Venezuela, it's necessary to know all the voting stations' final results, and that these be audited by the world."
President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) of Mexico warned against outside interference and refrained from criticizing the Venezuelan leader directly, but also called for transparency and the release of detailed vote counts, as did his chosen successor and president-elect Claudia Sheinbaum.
Those demanding detailed documentation are aware the Maduro government almost certainly will not be able to substantiate its claims with returns from voting machines.
The Venezuelan opposition, however, says it won the election by a wide margin and that it has the receipts to prove it.
Paper trail of votes
The election took place at more than 30,000 individual polling tables, each of which produced its own electronic vote. Those counts were reproduced on paper receipts called "actas" marked with a unique QR code and alphanumeric signature. By law, volunteer scrutineers are entitled to a copy.
The opposition — which was much more organized and unified than in the past — recruited tens of thousands of scrutineers to monitor the election across the country, and says it was able to obtain actas from almost all polling stations, which it has been rapidly uploading online.
As of midnight Tuesday, 81 per cent of all actas had been digitized, giving Edmundo González more than seven million votes and Maduro less than half that.
"We have the records showing our categorical and mathematically irreversible victory," said González, a 73-year-old retired diplomat who stepped up after Venezuela's electoral commission banned opposition leader Maria Corina Machado from running.
"It's a two-to-one margin, which is what local pollsters and international polling companies like Clear Path Strategies and Edison Research had been showing ahead of the vote," said Hernandez-Roy of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "Some were saying that the opposition would get somewhere between 65 and 70 sort of per cent of the vote. Others said simply that Edmundo González was up at least 25 points ahead of Maduro. So this is consistent with polling."
Diplomatic tensions
As the opposition uploaded actas on Tuesday morning, Peru recognized González as president-elect.
Within hours, Venezuela broke off diplomatic relations with Peru and six other Latin American countries, ordering them to close their embassies and withdraw their diplomats. All had alleged or implied there was fraud in Sunday's vote count.
Among them was Chile, whose socialist President Gabriel Boric stated on his X account "the results announced by the Maduro regime are difficult to believe."
At time of publication, many diplomats from the seven countries affected by expulsions remained in Caracas.
Argentina's President Javier Milei has long been one of the fiercest critics of Chavismo.
"Argentina will not recognize another fraud," Milei warned on his X account, "and hopes that this time the armed forces will defend democracy and the popular will."
The most dramatic situation since Sunday occurred at the Argentinian embassy in Caracas, which remains surrounded by masked agents of the Maduro government. Diplomats inside the embassy say electricity has been cut off.
Members of Machado's campaign team had sought sanctuary in the embassy. On Monday night, soon after the rupture in diplomatic relations, the embassy was surrounded by "colectivos," an informal militia of ruling Socialist Party who wear street clothes and are often armed.
Maduro responded by saying, "Traitor, coward, you couldn't go a round with me," adding Milei was "a Nazi fascist" with the face of a monster.
Arrests begin
Rallies in Caracas by both sides on Tuesday afternoon seemed to confirm the Maduro government has lost the streets.
Senior government figures said opposition leaders Machado and González would be arrested, but that had not happened by time of publication.
The opposition says one of its leaders, Freddy Superlano, was taken from a house in Caracas by masked men in black uniforms. Less prominent figures of the opposition experienced similar abductions in various parts of the country.
By evening, there were unconfirmed reports that arrest warrants had already been signed for Machado and González.
Arresting Machado would not be a simple operation. She is often accompanied by a volunteer escort of hundreds of motorcycles or large crowds of sympathizers, a tactic that her campaign perfected while touring Venezuela during the campaign.
All eyes on armed forces
The next steps for the Venezuelan government and opposition remain uncertain.
The socialist movement started by Hugo Chavez — once popular with the majority of voters — began to lose the streets of Venezuela a decade ago, when Chavez died, and that process now seems complete. But Maduro still controls the armed forces.
Both sides are watching for any change in that situation.
Machado has openly harangued members of the security forces to switch sides, so far with little success. But two army captains published a video yesterday calling on their fellow soldiers to back her.
"The time has come to take the correct decisions for this historic moment," said Capt. Javier Nieto. "It's evident that we have a new president-elect."
The loyalties of the rank-and-file are uncertain, and the government has been reluctant to test them by ordering them to fire on crowds that could contain their own friends and family.
"The security forces are not monolithic," said Hernandez-Roy. "Your average Venezuelan soldier or your average policeman is also struggling with meeting the basic necessities of life and and feeding their family."
Maduro has warned that his United Socialist Party won't leave power without a "fratricidal civil war." Machado told a large crowd yesterday that the opposition "won't negotiate results. The only thing we'll negotiate is the transition."
The stage is set for a huge and possibly violent confrontation.
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