As Putin's political fortunes plummet, Kremlin turns to sociologists for advice

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TODAY:

• Two new Kremlin-commissioned polls suggest growing dissatisfaction with Vladimir Putin's policies and personal style.
• There's lively debate around how effective an independent MP can be.
• Canadian police are using family trees and the latest DNA technology to track down killers in long-unsolved cold cases.
• Missed The National last night? Watch it here.

Polling Putin

Russia helped elect Donald Trump in 2016 — as even the U.S. president now kind of admits — but moving forward, Vladimir Putin should probably focus more on his own political fortunes.

Two new Kremlin-commissioned polls have delivered some bad news for the Russian president, suggesting growing dissatisfaction with his policies and personal style.

A survey by the state-run FOM polling agency reveals that only 48 per cent of Russians would vote for Putin if elections were held now — a dizzying drop from his 77 per cent victory just over a year ago.

And a poll conducted by VTsIOM, another Kremlin-controlled firm, has pegged public trust in Putin at just 31.7 per cent, his lowest score since 2006. Prior to the elections last March, 55.3 per cent of Russians said they trusted their president.

Putin's approval rating is higher, at 64 per cent, according to poll by the independent Levada Center last month, but has fallen 17 per cent in a year.

And there is broad disenchantment with the country's stumbling economy and the Kremlin's controversial pension reforms.

The same Levada survey found only 34 per cent approval for Prime Minister Dimitri Medvedev, 40 per cent confidence in the government, and that just 48 per cent of Russians think the country is on the "right track."

Officials seem a little perplexed by the turn against Putin. Today, the president's spokesman said that the Kremlin is asking sociologists to explain the falling numbers.

Perhaps it has something to do with Putin's increasing intolerance for all forms of dissent.

His already firm grip on the country's media was strengthened in March when he signed a new law that made it illegal to spread "fake news" or show "blatant disrespect" to the state on the internet, punishable by fines of up to 100,000 rubles ($2,075 Cdn) or a 15-day jail sentence.

This week, two more people were charged under the statute — a blogger who called Putin a "dumbass" in a tweet, and an opposition figure who had posted an unflattering rhyme about the president.

And even when Putin has good news, he seems unwilling to share it with voters.

Rumours have been swirling that his much-younger girlfriend, Alina Kabaeva, has given birth to twin boys, although there has been no official confirmation and scant coverage in the Russian media.

Putin, 66, has been linked to the 36-year-old Kabaeva — the winner of a gold medal in rhythmic gymnastics at the 2004 Athens Olympics and now the head of a media company — for years, and there have been reports that they had a daughter in 2015.

The Russian president divorced his wife of three decades, Lyudmilla Shkrebneva, in 2013.

This week, one of their two daughters, Katerina Tikhonova, was in the news as she successfully defended her PhD dissertation on analytical mechanics and space travel before a panel at Moscow State University. Putin has never formally acknowledged the 32-year-old, who has also gained renown for her acrobatic dancing. She is already a deputy vice-rector at the university, and a foundation that she runs has won tens of millions in research contracts.

Still, as powerful as Putin has become, he can't control how he is portrayed in most foreign countries.

Last week, the BBC revealed plans for a new, satirical chat show which will be hosted by a 3-D animated, weirdly accented version of the Russian president, interviewing real live guests in front of a studio audience.

Tonight with Vladimir Putin will debut on June 14, when his guest will be Alastair Campbell, Tony Blair's former spokesman and chief knuckle-breaker.

RT, the Russian state-owned media outlet, has panned the show before it has even premiered, calling it a "regurgitated dystopian nightmare," and suggesting that the BBC's recent comedy offerings might qualify as a "crime against humanity."

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At Issue

There's lively debate around how effective an independent MP can be, The National co-host Rosemary Barton writes.

When Jane Philpott and Jody Wilson-Raybould announced earlier this week they were going to run as independents, it started a conversation about just what that means — and what an independent might be able to do or not do for their constituents.

I went on the CBC's podcast Front Burner to talk about the announcement and all the challenges the two MPs now face: money, lack of party resources, an electoral system that doesn't really favour Independents, the list goes on.

It was a factual assessment of things, but it didn't go over well with all the listeners.

Some of them felt I was being overly dismissive of independents, and unwilling to think change is possible and even good.

One gentleman on Twitter, Kevin Richardson, explained his reasoning this way:

Anyway, that got me to thinking, which is when Twitter is at its best. So tonight we will talk a little more about what would happen if there were a few more independents, and how that could affect Canada's political system.

Plus, U.S. Vice-President Mike Pence is in town today to meet with Justin Trudeau, so I'd be shocked if that didn't also create some headlines for us to talk about on At Issue tonight.

Chantal Hébert , Andrew Coyne and my cubicle-row friend Aaron Wherry will be with us later. See you then.

- Rosemary Barton

• WATCH: At Issue tonight on The National on CBC Television and streamed online

Can your DNA help catch a killer?

Reporter Greg Rasmussen and producer Chris Corday explored the Canadian angle on what many are calling the biggest breakthrough in policing in decades — using family trees and the latest DNA technology to track down killers in long-unsolved cold cases. Their story led them to an old apartment building in Vancouver's West End.

There's always something unsettling about hanging around near a murder scene, no matter how long ago it happened. You wonder about the victim, the killer, and how it all unfolded.

Those thoughts were in my mind as I interviewed Vancouver police detective Sgt. Mike Heard outside an aging apartment building near the city's downtown.

The story was about solving cold cases, and we met outside the address where Edgar "Iggy" Leonardo died in August 2003. Leonardo returned home late one night with someone whose identity isn't known and was murdered, but the killer left behind his DNA.

Since then, Vancouver police have chased a lot of leads, but have come up empty.

Their best hope was for a match against DNA records in Canada's official databanks. But those hold only DNA from convicted criminals. In this case, the killer has never been part of that registry.

Heard has been on this case for years, taking over from another detective who retired. He said it's an investigation that keeps him up at night.

"It's something that I vowed that I will solve before I leave here," said Heard, a police officer with 20 years on the force.

The new genealogical search technique that Heard is now using has solved dozens of cold cases in the U.S. in the past year. The breakthrough is sometimes referred to as genetic genealogy, or snapshot DNA, or by a few other less-than-catchy terms.

Basically, if they don't find a precise match for a suspect's DNA, investigators cast a wider net and search databases for anyone genetically related to the person whose DNA was recovered from a crime scene. The goal is that through the relative, they'll have a lead to help them track down the suspect.

Heard said Leonardo's murder was a prime example of a Canadian case that could benefit from the technology, which has been rapidly evolving south of the border.

"When I saw this technique and I heard about it being used, and knew that we can kind of work towards identifying a suspect or a family member of our potential suspect, it was a huge lightbulb moment," Heard told us.

This is the first time a Canadian police force has confirmed it is using the investigative technique in this country.

Heard hopes the big break will come when someone doing a genealogy search for long-lost family members uploads genetic information that connects the dots to the killer in his case.

"It's only a matter of time before we identify a suspect," he said confidently.

- Greg Rasmussen

• READ: Vancouver police using same DNA technique that caught suspected Golden State Killer
• WATCH: The story about how police are using genetic genealogy, tonight on The National on CBC Television and streamed online

A few words on ... 

Musical gifts.

Quote of the moment

"I am never going to enforce a law that's unconstitutional, and furthermore, especially not one that targets women and girls."

- David Cooke, chief prosecutor in Macon, Ga., one of four district attorneys who say they will refuse to enforce a harsh new state abortion law.

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Today in history

May 30, 1987: The Reform Party is founded

The West wants in, or more precisely, to be in charge. Members of the Reform Association of Canada vote overwhelmingly in favour of transforming their movement into a full-fledged federal political party, with the intention of fielding 80 candidates in the 1988 election. "There's a tremendous frustration in the West and it has to be focused somewhere," says delegate Murray Smith. "People are just not going to support the three major political parties."

The Reform Party is formed

38 years ago

Duration 1:57

Westerners are getting together in 1987 to form a new federal political party, soon to be known as Reform.

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