Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea are escalating. The options to stop them are limited
Vessels traversing the route becoming collateral damage of Israel-Hamas war
UPDATE | On Monday, Dec. 18, BP announced it would temporarily suspended shipments through the Red Sea after another vessel transiting through the sea was attacked by what U.S. said were projectiles launched from Houthi-controlled territory in Yemen. Read the full story here.
Yemen's Houthi militias operate far from the borders of their sworn enemy Israel. But in the last week, their efforts to influence the war in Gaza have started to be felt over a wider area.
Attacks — from drones, missiles fired from boats or rockets launched from shore — have escalated on commercial shipping vessels off the coast of Yemen.
This week has proven to be especially dangerous for mariners in the busy shipping lanes near the south end of the Red Sea, at the narrow entrance of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
On Friday, a Liberian-flagged cargo ship was hit by some sort of projectile fired from the Yemen coast. The day before, a missile narrowly missed a Maersk container ship travelling through the strait, prompting the company to announce it would "pause" all container shipments through the region.
And earlier this week, the Norwegian tanker MK Strinda was hit by at least one missile, causing a modest fire but no other serious damage.
Houthi commanders have said any ship that is either going to Israel or has an Israeli connection could be targeted. In most cases, it has been difficult to discern what, if any, those links might be.
Long conflict with Yemen government
Yemen's Houthis make up roughly 35 per cent of the country's population. With strong support from Iran, Houthi fighters have been engaged in a long-running conflict with the central government, which is backed by Saudi Arabia.
Of late, both sides have been engaged in peace talks in an effort to return the country to stability.
The Houthis currently control large sections of the western and northern part of the country, including along the strategically important Red Sea coast.
While none of the Houthi attacks have caused fatalities, the growing frequency of attacks has alarmed Western and regional governments and triggered U.S.-led efforts to form a naval coalition to monitor the vital shipping lanes.
"We want vessels protected," said Peter Aylott, policy director for the U.K. Chamber of Shipping, a trade association representing more than 200 global companies.
"Very clearly, the number of attacks we are seeing means we need more assets," he told CBC News.
Currently, U.S., French and Japanese military naval vessels are operating in the area and have successfully intercepted most of the Houthi missiles but U.S. authorities are now trying to get more countries to send ships.
There are no Canadian ships operating in the Red Sea region at this time, according to a statement from the Department of National Defence.
"The CAF (Canadian Armed Forces) will continue to monitor the situation in the region alongside allied and partner nations," said the email.
Fraught waters for shipping companies
The strategic waters around Yemen, the Horn of Africa and the Arabian Sea, have long been fraught for the world's shipping companies.
Between 2009 and 2016, a multinational force thwarted numerous pirate attacks, many launched from Somalia.
But the Houthi attacks represent a far more sophisticated threat from a well-armed, well-funded adversary.
The group has shore-based ballistic missiles that can fly over 500 kilometres and cruise missiles with shorter ranges.
Houthi attacks have also come from speedboats carrying gunmen armed with machine guns, according to the U.S. Central Command.
In the most audacious incident, a helicopter landed on the deck of the Galaxy Leader cargo ship on Nov. 19. Gunmen stormed the bridge, taking the 15 crew members hostage.
"We certainly didn't expect a helicopter insertion or seizure," said Aylott.
Days later, video emerged of Houthi leaders taking locals in Yemen on tours of the seized ship and boasting of their conquest. The videos linked the seizure to the Israeli attacks on Gaza.
"The attacks are co-ordinated with the Iranians," said Mustapha Noman, a former senior Yemeni diplomat who served as the ambassador to Canada in the early 2000s.
"They can't do something like this by themselves."
Insurance companies have already raised premiums for vessels travelling through the area, and it is common practice for many ships to carry armed guards when sailing through the region.
Ship tracking websites report shipping traffic into the Red Sea port of Eilat has all but stopped. Most shipping traffic is being rerouted around Africa, adding 13,000 kilometres and up to two additional weeks to the journey.
But beyond having naval vessels provide cover, Noman says Israel, the United States and other countries have very few options to prevent the Houthis from launching their attacks.
"[Houthi fighters] are settled within the Yemeni population," he said. "It's not like you can go after their camps or bases."
"So this is the dilemma — or even a trap — the United States finds itself in. What can they hit?"
A military strike on a Houthi port or launching area would likely only inflame the group's rhetoric and hand it a symbolic victory with supporters, Noman said.
Duncan Potts, a retired British vice-admiral, commanded the multinational naval force that, a decade ago, protected the waters around the Gulf of Aden and the Horn of Africa from pirates.
In an interview with CBC News, he agreed that military options to address the Houthi threat are limited.
"In terms of a viable military action, there isn't any," said Potts.
Nor is it really feasible to try to move ships through the region in a kind of convoy system, such as what existed in the Atlantic Ocean during the Second World War.
Potts said it would require a large number of naval vessels and be very expensive for shipping companies.
"Escorting against determined anti-ship cruise missiles would be very asset-intensive and almost inevitably slow down the flow of trade as well," said Potts.
"There are always options, but it depends on the level of escalation that both sides wish to take on this. So yeah, it's a very bad development."
The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is only 29 kilometres wide at its narrowest point.
More than 23,000 ships pass through in either direction every year, carrying about a trillion dollars worth of goods.
Noman, the former Yemeni diplomat, said that if Iran eventually decides to escalate the Israel-Hamas conflict, he believes that escalation will most likely happen in southern Lebanon, where Iran-proxy Hezbollah has tens of thousands of soldiers on the border with Israel.
Noman added that he thinks the most likely course of events will be the Houthis continuing to shoot missiles and cause disruptions in international shipping, but without increasing the intensity of the attacks.
"I don't see much more than what the Houthis are doing."
Potts concurs.
"Many of [Iran's] worst threats don't come to fruition," he said. "But I'm always loath to say 'never' because we live in a volatile world."
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
