Venezuela will vote on territory that belongs to recently oil-rich Guyana

Judges at the World Court on Friday ordered Venezuela to refrain from taking any action that would alter the situation on the ground in a potentially oil-rich territory that is the subject of a border dispute with Guyana, which controls the area.

The court did not expressly forbid Venezuela to hold a planned Sunday referendum over its rights to the region around the Esequibo river, the subject of the long-running border dispute, as Guyana has requested.

However, the court's president, Joan E. Donoghue, did refer to it as she laid out the reasons for the order.

She said that "Venezuela's expressed readiness to take action with regard to the territory in dispute in these proceedings at any moment following the referendum" showed that there is "a real and imminent risk of irreparable prejudice to Guyana's plausible right before the court gives its final decision."

Venezuela's government, however, interpreted the ruling as a victory, saying in a statement released by the Ministry of Communication and Information that the court had "rejected" Guyana's request.

Guyana reserves entice

Venezuela had already said it would hold the referendum regardless of the opinion of the court, formally known as the International Court of Justice (ICJ). The five-question referendum backed by the government of President Nicolas Maduro is likely to be approved, analysts have said.

The referendum asks Venezuelans, among other things, if they agree to a plan to incorporate the region and create a state called Guayana Esequiba.

Guyana's President Irfaan Ali also hailed the court's ruling in a statement.

"As the court has made clear, Venezuela is prohibited from annexing or trespassing upon Guyanese territory or taking any other actions — regardless of the outcome of its referendum on Dec. 3 — that would alter the status quo in which Guyana administers and controls the Esequibo region," the statement said.

The ICJ said in April it had jurisdiction, though a final ruling could be years away. Venezuela has maintained the issue should be resolved by the two countries.

The 160,000-square-kilometre territory around the Esequibo river is mostly impenetrable jungle. Venezuela has always considered Esequibo as its own because the region was within its boundaries during the Spanish colonial period, and it has long disputed the border decided by international arbitrators in 1899, when Guyana was still a British colony.

Venezuela, which holds Latin America's biggest gas reserves, reactivated its claim over the area in recent years after the discovery of offshore oil and gas. Last month Guyana, home to just 800,000 people, announced another significant discovery in offshore areas.

Guyana already has seen its economy soar thanks to the massive oil discovery in 2015 that so far has led to the production of nearly 400,000 barrels of oil a day.

Guyana in September received bids from companies including Exxon Mobil and TotalEnergies to allocate several new offshore oil blocks, to diversify from an existing Exxon-led consortium.

The U.S. Geological Survey estimates that Guyana's coastal area has roughly 13.6 billion barrels of oil reserves and gas reserves of 32 trillion cubic feet. The country "will soon be the highest oil-producing country per capita in the world," U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said during a July visit.

Venezuela argues that Guyana does not have sovereign rights over the areas, so any oil activity there must be done in agreement with Caracas.

U.S. oil sanctions in the balance

Any aggressive Venezuela action toward Guyana would have consequences in the region and beyond.

Brazil's Defence Ministry said earlier this week it had "intensified defensive actions" along its northern border as it monitored the territorial dispute.

"The Ministry of Defence has been monitoring the situation. Defensive actions have been intensified in the northern border region of the country, promoting a greater military presence," it said in a statement.

It would also further complicate Venezuela's already fraught relations with the U.S.

The United States in October announced a six-month rollback on some oil industry sanctions and lifted a bond trading ban in exchange for a deal on free and fair elections next year between the government of autocratic President Nicolas Maduro and the opposition.

Washington has said it will reverse the sanctions relief if Maduro doesn't take steps to release political prisoners and "wrongfully detained" Americans. Caracas released five prisoners in October, but the U.S. says four other Americans have yet to be released.

Venezuela, one of the five founding members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), has an ally in Russia, the world's second largest oil exporter. It has seen its ties with Moscow deepen since Russia invaded Ukraine in early 2022, as Western countries slapped sanctions on Russian exports.