As people flee conflict in Sudan, experts worry what it will mean for the country

The Current19:36Sudan’s future hangs in balance as people flee continuing violence

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As regional conflict forces thousands of Sudanese to flee the country, some experts are concerned about the impact the exodus will have on Sudan.

"It's only getting harder now with the conflict, as most of the hospitals are now shut [down]," said Sami Hamdi, managing director of the global risk and intelligence organization International Interest.

"They don't have the necessary resources, they don't have fuel and electricity to continue running. This has resulted in many Sudanese deciding to just up and leave the country." 

Since gaining independence in 1956, Sudan has gone through 35 attempted coups, six of which were successful. Those coups have forced thousands of Sudanese to flee the country, causing what's known as a brain drain.

This time alone, United Nations says that around 800,000 people — many of them medical professionals and agricultural workers — may attempt to escape Sudan in the coming days.

Hamdi spoke to The Current guest host Robyn Bresnahan about the impact the migration of Sudanese specialists is having on the country. Here's part of their conversation.

What impact has all this human flight had on Sudan?

Last year, the United Nations stated that one in three Sudanese had to walk more than an hour just to get medical care, and even when they arrive to have medical care, less than 30 per cent of vital medicines were readily available.

If we're looking at Sudan in the agricultural sector ... we often call Sudan the garden basket of the region, given its potential to [be] able to feed more than its own population. 

As a result of the brain drain of experts in fisheries, experts in agricultural goods, Sudan has never been able to realize or fulfil its potential with food and has had to rely on imports.

The point here being, as you can see in the very essentials of human life, health care, basic foods, the result of the brain drain means Sudan has never been able to maximize its potential and life has been much harder for the Sudanese. 

What impact do you reckon this current conflict is going to have on Sudan's future?

I think it will have a significant impact, primarily because if you look at the narrative from the perspective of the Sudanese, they were under sanctions for 30 years and then they embarked on a revolution to topple the Bashir regime. And then they had anticipations that there would be elections, a democratic transition and the like. 

Then, they were surprised that instead of moving to a democratic transition, a deal was made between ... civilian parties that were concerned they would lose elections, and between military generals who wanted to stay in power. 

In other words, instead of a democratic transition, a transition built on a consensus to deny the Sudanese the right to choose their leaders came about instead.

And today we have, of course, the battling of two generals who are fighting within these dynamics, believing that they can stay in power because the transition is not about democracy. The transition is about who can guarantee certain changes to the state that are designed by certain international powers. 

So the Sudanese are saying that if after sanctions, after revolution, after trying to take power for ourselves, nothing improves, there's no hope left for this country.

This is why we're seeing a vast exodus, particularly as people anticipate that this fighting might not be restricted to Khartoum, but Darfur might blow up again. 

We may see that the Sudanese believe that if this war expands, then Sudan is a failed state, a broken state destined to be divided up into three or four states.

Do you have any hope left for Sudan?

I think that when it comes to Sudan, the reality is that there needs to be a debate, not necessarily between the Sudanese, but primarily between the international actors who brokered the transition in Sudan. 

The transition in Sudan is built on the premise that they should prevent what happened in ... the Arab Spring elections in Tunisia, Libya and Egypt, the prime beneficiaries were the Muslim Brotherhood, the Islamists. There are concerns that if Sudanese are allowed to vote or are given elections now, then it is likely that a similar pattern will take place, as [it] did in Tunisia, Libya and Egypt. 

This is why there is an assertion that power should be handed over not just to any civilian government, but to specifically the forces for freedom and change who are made up of leftists communists, and the [National] Umma Party ... on the basis that these parties will not win elections, but we should hand over power to them instead to prevent Islamists from coming to power.

The only solution for Sudan is a democratic transition built on a mandate. It's about allowing the Sudanese to dictate their fate and accepting the results of any elections on the basis that the only way the army will be forced to hand over power is if there is a mandate, because they will no longer have any leg to stand on.