Monday draft lottery could alter off-season plans for NHL's worst teams

At one point, Chicago general manager Kyle Davidson downplayed the importance of the NHL draft lottery on his team's off-season plans.

Moments later, Davidson allowed himself a wide grin as he pondered the possibilities.

"The top of the draft's good," he said with a smile. "Yeah, it's a special top of the draft. There's no doubt about it."

It's so good that a single ping-pong ball could have a ripple effect beyond Chicago, the Anaheim Ducks, Columbus Blue Jackets or another lucky NHL team looking to turn a dismal season into a blue-chip player.

High-scoring forward Connor Bedard is the top prize as the consensus No. 1 overall prospect, but University of Michigan star Adam Fantilli would be quite a return for whichever team gets the No. 2 pick. Matvei Michkov and Leo Carlsson also are expected to go in the top five.

Land one of the those top spots in Monday's lottery at 8 p.m. ET at NHL Network's Secaucus, N.J., studio, and a rebuilding team could decide to accelerate its timeline through free agency. The franchise that takes a chance on Michkov, who has a more uncertain future because of his contract with his Russian team, could position itself for another top pick in 2024.

Format change last year

The lottery determines the order of selection for the first 16 picks in the first round of the June 28–29 draft at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville. Participants are teams that did not qualify for the playoffs (or teams that have acquired the first-round drafting positions of those non-playoff teams).

The NHL announced changes to the lottery format in 2021. Only the first two picks will be subject to the lottery instead of the top three, and no team can move up more than 10 picks. Starting last year, no team will be able to win the draft lottery — for either of the first two spots — more than twice in a five-year span.

The 14 teams not part of Monday's draft will be assigned the remaining 2023 selections (among 1 through 16 in the first round), in inverse order of regular-season points.

The tantalizing talent of Bedard and Fantilli was an undercurrent throughout a season when the bottom of the standings was almost as interesting as what was going on at the top.

The NHL scouting combine, showcasing the top draft-eligible North American and international prospects, is June 4-10 at KeyBank Center and LECOM Harborcenter in Buffalo, N.Y.

Anaheim (23-47-12) secured the league's worst record by dropping its last 13 games. The reward is a 25.5 per cent chance of its first No. 1 pick in the draft, and the Ducks are assured of a top-three selection.

Draft lottery teams (fewest points to most) with odds

• Anaheim Ducks — 18.5%
• Columbus Blue Jackets — 13.5%
• Chicago Blackhawks — 11.5%
• San Jose Sharks — 9.5%
• Montreal Canadiens — 8.5%
• Arizona Coyotes — 7.5%
• Philadelphia Flyers — 6.5%
• Washington Capitals — 6.0%
• Detroit Red Wings — 5.0%
• St. Louis Blues — 3.5%
• Vancouver Canucks — 3.0%
• Ottawa Senators* — 2.5%
• Buffalo Sabres — 2.0%
• Pittsburgh Penguins — 1.5%

* Under terms of a March 1 trade, Ottawa will transfer its first-round pick in this draft to Arizona if it is not a top-five pick. If it is, the Senators will retain the pick and instead transfer to Arizona its first-round selection in next year's draft.